January 26th 2021: US Dollar Index Holding North of 90.00 Ahead of US CB Consumer Confidence Data

Note – Charts provided by Trading View

EUR/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Following the break of long-term trendline resistance (1.6038) in July, and subsequent break of supply at 1.1857/1.1352 in August, EUR/USD, by way of two back-to-back bullish candles, welcomed 2021 in good health.

This—despite January’s modest 0.6 percent slide—reasons additional upside towards ascending resistance (prior support – 1.1641) may eventually be on the horizon.

The primary uptrend has been in play since price broke the 1.1714 high (Aug 2015) in July 2017.

Daily timeframe:

Partly modified from previous analysis –

Although price warmed to a 38.2% Fib level at 1.2059 last week, demand at 1.1923/1.2001—an area complemented by trendline support (1.0774)—is seen lying in wait a few pips south. Sustained buying, on the other hand, invites the possibility of retesting 2021 tops at 1.2349.

The RSI value gently spun lower around the 50.00 centreline on Monday. Familiar resistance, nonetheless, is visible at 60.30.

H4 timeframe:

Resistance at 1.2179 is proving an effective ceiling on the H4 chart, shutting down buyers on Monday and delivering a low at 1.2116.

Demand at 1.2040/1.2065 calls to the downside (holds 38.2% Fib on the daily timeframe at 1.2059), while a 1.2179 breach shines light on 1.2214 resistance. Interestingly, the aforesaid level is sheltered under supply coming in from 1.2282/1.2245. Fib fans will also note the 61.8% Fib level inhabits territory at 1.2241.

H1 timeframe:

In tandem with H4 resistance at 1.2179, a H1 AB=CD resistance at 1.2177 (placed below the 1.22 level) helped limit upside yesterday and directed intraday activity through the 100-period simple moving average at 1.2146.

Seeing the aforesaid 100-period SMA echo (at the time of writing) resistance may have sellers attempt to rush yesterday’s session low at 1.2116 and take aim at 1.21.

Also of technical importance is the RSI indicator dipped a toe in oversold territory on Monday though has since recovered, with eyes on the 50.00 centreline (currently standing as an S/R area).

Observed levels:

Cemented within a clear uptrend, with monthly price observing higher levels, this could provide buyers with enough conviction to maintain a bullish position above the daily timeframe’s 38.2% Fib level at 1.2059.

Shorter-term technical structure, on the other hand, has H4 resistance at 1.2179 holding back upside attempts and the H1 retesting, and currently holding, the 100-period simple moving average. With this, an intraday push to 1.21 could be in store.

January 26th 2021: US Dollar Index Holding North of 90.00 Ahead of US CB Consumer Confidence Data, FP Markets

AUD/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Following two spirited months of gains off demand at 0.7029/0.6664 (prior supply), early 2021, despite currently fading session peaks, shines light on a possible continuation higher to 0.8303/0.8082—a supply zone aligning closely with trendline resistance (prior support – 0.4776).

In terms of trend, the primary downtrend (since mid-2011) remains south until breaking 0.8135 (January high [2018]).

Daily timeframe:

Brought forward from previous analysis –

Recent developments show a bullish pennant pattern establishing a foothold, forming between the 2021 high at 0.7820 and January 4 low at 0.7642.

Technicians will also note the aforesaid pattern balances off support at 0.7647, with supply at 0.7937/0.7890 to perhaps make an arrival in the event a breakout higher develops.

Out of the RSI indicator, the value remains entrenched within an early descending channel. Support is seen at 52.00, while resistance is set around 80.19.

H4 timeframe:

The daily timeframe’s bullish pennant pattern, according to the H4 chart’s technical framework, is developing between demand at 0.7665/0.7644 (prior supply) and resistance at 0.7805.

Outside areas to be conscious of are resistance at 0.7843 and demand at 0.7600/0.7625—an area of particular importance due to it being within this zone a decision was made to breach 0.7639 (December 17 high). Also seen intersecting with the demand is a 127.2% Fib projection at 0.7620.

H1 timeframe:

0.77 received a blow on Monday, whipsawing to lows at 0.7682 and producing a hammer candle pattern. Buyers are in force, yet whether they contain enough fuel to retest 0.7228 resistance is difficult to estimate, especially as H4 demonstrates a clear(ish) path to demand at 0.7665/0.7644.

Another prominent characteristic on the H1 is demand at 0.7654/0.7672, seen fastened to the upper side of the aforesaid H4 demand.

Observed levels:

H1 demand at 0.7654/0.7672, sitting on top of H4 demand at 0.7665/0.7644 (holds daily support at 0.7647 within), offers healthy confluence. Also adding value, of course, is the current uptrend and the monthly chart pictured seeking higher terrain.

January 26th 2021: US Dollar Index Holding North of 90.00 Ahead of US CB Consumer Confidence Data, FP Markets

USD/JPY:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

Over the span of four years, USD/JPY carved out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62.

Although December pursued terrain south of 104.62, January has so far attempted a comeback and is within relatively close range of retesting 104.62.

104.62 ceding ground throws light on support from 101.70, with a break here uncovering trendline support (76.15) and the descending triangle’s take-profit objective at 91.04 (red).

Daily timeframe:

Brought forward from previous analysis –

Overall, buyers and sellers remain squaring off between trendline resistance (111.71) and 103.08 support.

Beyond the aforesaid areas, demand at 100.68/101.85 is visible (encases monthly support at 101.70) and supply can be found at 106.33/105.78 (the 200-day simple moving average circles the lower side of the supply).

Also prominent is the RSI indicator recently crossed paths with resistance at 57.00, a level hindering upside since July 2020.

H4 timeframe:

Partly modified from previous analysis –

Local trendline resistance (104.39) made an entrance on Monday, fuelling a shooting star candle pattern (red arrow).

Countering trendline resistance today throws light on last Thursday’s low at 103.32, positioned ahead of a Fib cluster around 103.28 (a collection of Fibonacci levels formed around a specific price level). Upstream, however, may direct focus to resistance at 104.16.

H1 timeframe:

Monday spent the day getting to know the 100-period simple moving average at 103.67, withstanding a number of downside attempts.

Current candle action, as you can see, is on the verge of closing out by way of a hammer pattern. Voyaging higher from here places 104 resistance and supply at 104.03/104.10 on the radar, while lower on the curve shines light on 103.50 support.

RSI fans will also note the indicator is balancing off the 50.00 centreline.

Observed levels:

H1 buyers respecting the 100-period simple moving average around 103.67 hinders sellers from H4 trendline resistance.

With the immediate trend facing south since March (2020), H1 buyers may be out of their depth. A H1 close under the 100-period SMA today, therefore, could spur intraday selling to at least 103.50 support on the H1.

January 26th 2021: US Dollar Index Holding North of 90.00 Ahead of US CB Consumer Confidence Data, FP Markets

GBP/USD:

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

December’s 2.5 percent extension elevated GBP/USD and stirred trendline resistance (2.1161).

January, as you can see, currently trades off session lows and recorded fresh 2021 highs (up by 0.1 percent).

In terms of trend, the primary trend has faced lower since early 2008, unbroken (as of current price) until 1.4376 gives way – April high, 2018. In effect, the aforesaid high represents the next upside objective on the monthly chart.

Daily timeframe:

Partly modified from previous analysis –

Buyers and sellers, in a market exhibiting an upside bias since early 2020, are visibly squaring off ahead of resistance at 1.3755. Breaching 1.3755 would bring light to supply at 1.3996/1.3918.

The RSI indicator has revealed a rangebound environment since November, limited by support around 47.00 and resistance at the 66.00 region.

H4 timeframe:

Demand at 1.3618/1.3637 remains a key platform on the H4 chart, preventing selling on two occasions in recent days. Equally persistent is resistance at 1.3711, positioned beneath another resistance at 1.3763 and nearby supply at 1.3837/1.3800.

H1 timeframe:

Heading into Monday’s US session, following an earlier attempt to find acceptance above 1.37 resistance, momentum to the downside dried up after chewing through the 100-period simple moving average at 1.3682. The latter displaying mild resistance could spark intraday bearish flow to the 1.36 area, accompanied by a Fib cluster at 1.3606.

With respect to the RSI indicator, the line is on the doorstep of the 50.00 centreline after modestly rebounding from 39.95.

Observed levels:

Daily resistance at 1.3755 could pose a problem for buyers, despite the monthly timeframe’s trendline resistance breach in December.

The 1.36 level on the H1 occupies a strong technical position, joining hands with a Fib cluster at 1.3605. Though to reach this area, H4 demand at 1.3618/1.3637 must be unseated.

January 26th 2021: US Dollar Index Holding North of 90.00 Ahead of US CB Consumer Confidence Data, FP Markets

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